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Arabian Street, Dominos, Egypt, History, Protests, Revolution, Twitter
Today, history is being made in the Middle East. The Arabian streets woke up to the sound of sniper fire as a regime is defending itself, against the people of its own nation. The flames of anger have been fanned by decades of corrupt authoritative rule. The growth rate in populations in the middle east have produced a generation of educated youth.
Revolutionaries in Tibet, Burma and Thailand used the internet and YouTube as a way to spread the word of what was happening in their countries during times of civil unrest. Twitter however, as a revolutionary tool, came of age during the recent protests in Iran, following the rigged election of 2009.
It was during this failed attempt by the oppressed people of Iran that both sides learned the power of Twitter. The capacity of twitter/SMS to allow civilians on the streets and at home to share information between them was a new tool used by revolutionaries in a new way. The ability to decentralize communications between demonstrators electronically became the besieged Governments greatest fear.
Governments are always accused of fighting the last war. In this case, the people are adapting to newer technology, without needing to use the old forms of controlled communication. The decentralized nature of the internet gives the people a new capacity to distribute the news or changes in plans unlike anything in human history.
A few weeks ago in Tunisia we had an uprising that was so spontaneous it completely caught everyone by surprise. It happened so quickly, elements of the government were unable or unwilling to act fast enough to stop it before the army switched sides and joined the movement.
In Egypt, people have set the current Governments party headquarters on fire, as a sign of their anger after the government turned off the internet and twitter. The police and the people are meeting in a surge of civil war events. The genie of revolution has been released. The power of what Twitter has unleashed has never been more visible.
When Egypt cut all internet and twitter communications, it was the true sign of the desperation of the Government now. The autocrat Governments around the world are trembling this weekend, as the reality of the last few weeks hits home. Tunisia was not a single event and Egypt will not be the last.
The people on the streets of Arabia are standing up and shaking off the shackles of dictatorship. The Egyptian revolution is unfolding in real time, in front of the world. The Twitter revolution is still happening, 140 characters at a time, just not in Egypt at this time.
The implications of this in the world markets are unwritten, but some obvious thoughts are counter to the market trend of the last 6 months. This will not be good for emerging markets. Revolutions are bad for capital investment projects.
Fear is an interesting thing. Once experienced it changes everything, values become relative. In such a world, the US dollar becomes king again. The world reserve currency returns to its role as a medium between all traders. The US Treasury market, all warts included, becomes the most liquid place to park funds while fear rages in the emerging markets.
Fear in the market has been on hold during one of the greatest market bounces in history. That fear may have just returned to the markets. One twit at a time. The world changes.
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Great post. Interestingly, even before Tunisia and Egypt, Emerging Markets (e.g. EEM) were looking quite vulnerable.
I am not convinced that one can already talk about revolution, changes and so on… it’s too early.
Only the Tunisian president has stepped down, to be replaced by his prime minister!
In Egypt and elsewhere, real changes are yet to happen…
Last year, there were violent protests in Greece and they went nowhere.
A true change will require months of mobilization from the population, and for the time being there are very few followers, compared to the number of citizens.
In France, they put millions people on the streets, because of a law postponing retirement by 2 years, with no result.
In the US, where they have other priorities, they put tens of thousands of the streets to march in favor of gay marriage, and they get results!
In all cases, mobile phones sms, Twitter and the likes certainly help motivating the protesters, which is why they have been shut down in Egypt…
Pakistan is a major concern. There were fights between loyalist and islamist army units in the recent years. While Pakistan has improved its control over its nuclear weapons (around 90-130) in recent years, it is not clear if it has transitioned, either partially or fully, to requiring access codes to arm nuclear warheads. It does store its weapons disassembled, and key components are kept at different locations. However, the Islamist army factions have evidently managed to secure the key components required to completely arm a nuclear weapon. What is uncertain is whether access codes are needed, and if they are, whether the breakaway elements have them.
By neglecting its educational infrastructure, Islamabad paved the way for the rise of the madrassas. These privately funded religious schools educate millions of young men and women in the Muslim world, and they are particularly influential in parts of the developing world where government education systems do not reach, as in many areas of Pakistan. For orphans and the poor, especially in rural areas, the madrassas provide essential social services, including education, room, and board. While the majority of madrassas are not “terrorist factories,” as some in the U.S. Congress allege, they do tend to be narrow-minded institutions. And some, especially those funded by Muslims in the Persian Gulf region, such as wealthy Saudis, do promote extreme ideologies. In these madrassas, subjects like music and science are ignored. Often the students learn only the Qur’an and then only a radical interpretation (many moderate Muslims would say misinterpretation and I would agree with them).
Another major factor in Pakistan’s slide is the country’s military, which has often placed its own interests above those of the Pakistani people. The army leadership has been responsible for diverting huge amounts of the nation’s wealth to itself. Its generals have successfully lobbied for, or simply taken, a substantial cut of the national economic pie to sustain the military competition with India, whose population and GDP are seven times greater than Pakistan’s
Compounding these problems are the nation’s growing water shortages, which have been a source of increasing concern in recent years. Within the next decade Pakistan’s rapidly growing population will reach a quarter-billion people attempting to scrape out a living in a country rapidly becoming as dry as the Sahara Desert. Islamabad had hoped to delay the profound economic and social consequences of this combined demographic and ecological disaster into the 2030s or at least the 2020s. However, the failure to take preventive measures such as water conservation and recycling, which most experts agree should have begun in the 1990s, has only accelerated the day of reckoning.
Revolutions, successful or not, are social events that happen in real time. They probably have a success rate of under 50% historically, but they happen. Ignoring the event, or waiting weeks to say, that was or was not a revolution is disingenuous to the reality of what is happening.
The Egyptian revolution will be successful this time, whether that is measured in Days or Weeks, because of the lack of a real choice in Egypt. Mubarak waited to long to designate a system of choices around him. He is going to be the last man standing of his government.
Mubarak will go down in history as the third longest ruler in Egyptian history. He will also clearly be the longest serving interim government in modern history. He spent 28 years in power with out designating a second in command. That alone should explain a lot of the issues driving the uprising.
While the people will have a new government, I have no doubt about that. The outcome of a real democracy in Egypt, has a real chance of unleashing a Muslim Brotherhood type of government.
The protests have moved to Saudi Arabia now, but the real points of weakness in the area currently are Jordan and Syria. They both represent a multi-generational leadership with little to no form of real secondary independent party. People need the ability to join an opposition, I believe this is why the US is still standing 230+ years later. We may not have a lot of choices, but we feel that do have choice.
The nations which have made sure that there is no secondary choices will find that the people have decided to change governments anyway. Revolutions being the only choice.
When a dictator/strongman/king for life uses every form of force to stay in power, the people have only one way of making change. We are seeing that in the Arabian street today.
I agree with Clara, regarding Pakistan. This is potentially the most dangerous country.
Regarding revolutions, I am not sure what is a failed, or unsuccessful revolution?
If it fails, then it goes back to the “status” of protests.
This is why I said that it is better to wait before labeling the events. Until now, what has happened in Tunisia cannot be called a revolution, yet the term has been used over and over.
Back to Egypt, I wonder what, or rather who is pushing El Baradei?
There are a lot of similitudes between his sudden propulsion to the forefront, despite no public support, and the one of Karzai in Afghanistan, years ago; if you see what I mean…
Bruno,
I agree El Baradei appears to have a faction. He was more of a Euro voice when dealing with Iran historically, at least in my opinion. I agree he reminds me/us of Karzai (who needs to be replaced with something legitimate also).
I have personally been shocked Karzai was still alive. Historically, the US has found ways to find team based players. Karzai appears to love to dance in a world of mocking the US while serving it. Weird, and not very long lived if you ask me.
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